واکاوی فراوانی رخدادهای گردوغبار و بارش همزمان در جنوب‌غربی ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 مربی پژوهش، بخش تحقیقات بیابان، مؤسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران

3 دانشیار، بخش تحقیقات جنگل، مؤسسه تحقیقات جنگلها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

4 استادیار، اقلیم‌شناسی، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه مازندران

5 دانشیار، گروه سنجش از راه دور و GIS، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

تجزیه‌و‌تحلیل سری‌های زمانی پارامترهای اقلیمی، راهکارهای جدیدی را در تحلیل فراوانی منطقه‌ای و برآورد روابط متغیرهای اقلیمی فراهم کرده است. در این مقاله، پردازش ویژگی‌های رقومی برای تعیین طول دوره چرخه روزانه گردوغبار و بارش در 12 ماه سال به‌کار برده شد تا با استفاده از پریودوگرام های همبستگی و تحلیل سری‌ زمانی روزانه دو متغیر یادشده استفاده شود. برای تحقق این هدف سری‌ زمانی دو متغیر فراوانی گردوغبار و میزان بارش براساس دوره مشترک آماری بلندمدت (2016-1986) در مورد 45 ایستگاه سینوپتیک واقع در جنوب‌غربی ایران بررسی شد. به‌منظور درک رابطه همبستگی، ابتدا نمودار تغییرات روزانه چرخه‌های گردوغبار و بارش در هر ماه از سال به‌طور جداگانه نمایش داده شد. سپس برای اطمینان از نرمال بودن آمار، داده‌ها با استفاده از آزمون آماری کولموگراف- اسمیرنوف بوسیله نرم‌افزار SPSS آزمایش گردید. نتایج آزمون نشان داد که کلیه داده‌های پارامترهای مورد نظر نرمال بودند. نتایج حاصل از محاسبه ضرایب همبستگی در 12 ماه سال پیرسون بیانگر معنی‌دار بودن همبستگی داده‌ها در سطح یک درصد است. نتایج بدست‌آمده مبتنی بر این یافته است که در منطقه مورد بررسی عمدتا در ماه‌های سرد سال (ژانویه، فوریه، مارس، آوریل، می، نوامبر و دسامبر) رابطه همبستگی معنی‌دار در سطح اعتماد 95% و 99% وجود دارد و در پنج ماه دوره گرم (ژوئن، ژوئیه، اوت، سپتامبر و اکتبر) همبستگی معنی‌دار مشاهده نمی‌شود. همچنین این تحقیق نشان داد که رابطه مقدار فراوانی رخدادهای گردوغبار با مقادیر بارندگی روزانه در منطقه مورد بررسی رابطه‌ای منفی است و این امر نشان می‌دهد که گردوغبار می‌تواند به‌طور قابل توجهی به‌عنوان عامل کاهنده یا سرکوب کننده میزان بارندگی در منطقه عمل کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Simultaneous dustfall and rainfall events frequency in southwest of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Tahereh Ensafi Moghaddam 1
  • Faramarz Khoshakhlagh 2
  • Aliakbar Shamsipour 2
  • Reza Akhavan 3
  • Taher Safarrad 4
  • Farshad Amiraslani 5
1 Research Instructor, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Prof., Faculty of Geography, Department of Climatology , University of Tehran , Iran.
3 Associate Prof., Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
4 Associate Prof., Faculty of Geography, Academic Rank-:Assistant Professor of Climatology,Department of Geography and Urban Planning,Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Mazandaran University.
5 Associate Prof., Faculty of Geography, Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, University of Tehran , Iran
چکیده [English]

This paper was carried out to determine the cycle of dust storm in relation with precipitation in 12 months of the year, using processing of digital time series and their correlation with two variables mentioned above. Hence to accomplish the aim of the paper, the frequency of time series for dust storm and rainfall have been analyzed for the long time statistical data collected from 45 synoptic stations(1986-2016), located in the south east of  Iran. In order to understand whether or not any correlation with these two variables, firstly a diagram of the daily changes in dust storm and rainfall cycles was drawn for each month separately. Then, to make sure that the statistics data are normal, the data were analyzed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test in SPSS software. The results of data normality showed that all statistical data of the parameters used in this research were normal. The results of calculating the correlation coefficients of each month during the course of thirty years, indicated that the correlation of data are significant at (P<0.01 & P<0.05) only in the cold months of the year (January, February, March, April, May, November and December). Also, this study showed that the relationship between the amounts of daily precipitation with an abundance of dust events in the area was negative, and this indicates that the dust could be significantly as reducer or repressive downpours in the region.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Daily rain and dust frequency
  • temporal variability
  • trend analysis
  • southwestern of Iran
  • time series

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