ارزیابی کارایی مدل‌های Geomod و LCM در شبیه‌سازی تغییرات کاربری اراضی (مطالعه موردی: دشت ابوغویر دهلران، استان ایلام)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای بیابان‌زدایی، گروه مدیریت مناطق بیابانی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه مدیریت مناطق بیابانی، دانشکده مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، ایران

چکیده

ﻣﺮاﻗﺒــﺖ از ﻳــﻚ اﻛﻮﺳﻴﺴــﺘﻢ و حفاظت از منابع طبیعی نیازمند آگاهی از شرایط و نحوه تغییر کاربری­های مختلف اراضی است. هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی تغییرات کاربری در گذشته و ارزیابی کارایی مدل­های Geomod و LCM در شبیه­سازی تغییرات کاربری اراضی است، تا با انتخاب مدل مناسب­تر پیش­بینی تغییرات کاربری اراضی در آینده صورت گیرد. از این رو تصاویر ماهواره‌ای لندست متعلق به سال‌های 1369، 1382 و 1395 مورد بررسی قرارگرفت و پایش تغییرات کاربری اراضی با استفاده از این تصاویر صورت گرفت. شبیه­سازی وضعیت ﻛﺎرﺑﺮی اراﺿﻲ با مدل LCM ﺑﺮای ﺳﺎل 1395، با استفاده از نقشه­های کاربری سال­های 1369 و 1382 صورت گرفت و با استفاده از روش MLP و زنجیره مارکف نقشه کاربری زمین برای سال 1395 شبیه­سازی شد. برای اجرای مدل Geomod از تصویر مربوط به نقشه تک کاربری سال 1382 و تصویر مربوط به نقشه تک کاربری سال 1395 استفاده و نقشه تناسب تغییرات با استفاده از پارامترهای تأثیرگذار در تغییرات کاربری اراضی تهیه و به مدل معرفی شد. ارزیابی صحت نقشه شبیه­سازی سال 1395 نشان داد مدل LCM و Geomod به ترتیب دارای ضریب کاپای 82 و 70 درصد بودند. بنابراین مدل LCM به عنوان مدل مناسب­تر انتخاب و نقشه کاربری سال 1408 پیش­بینی و تهیه شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Performance comparison of Geomod and LCM models to predict land use changes (case study: Abughovair plain, Ilam province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zahedeh Heidarizadi 1
  • Ali Mohammadian Behbahani 2
1 PhD student of Combat Desertification, Arid Zone Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Science and Natural Resources, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Watershed and Arid Zone Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources (GUASNR), Iran
چکیده [English]

     Protecting an ecosystem and conserving natural resources requires knowledge of the conditions and land-use changes. The purpose of this study was to monitor land-use changes in the past and evaluate the performance of GEOMOD and LCM models in simulating land-use changes in order to select a more appropriate model for predicting land-use changes in the future. Landsat satellite images were used during the periods of 1990, 2003, and 2016 and land-use changes were monitored by using these images. The simulation of land use status by the LCM model for 2016 was done using the maps of the years 1990 and 2003. Using MLP and Markov chain, the land use map was simulated for 2016. To run the GEOMOD model, the image of the single-user map of 2003 and 2016 were used and the map of "appropriateness of changes" was made by the use of variables affecting land-use change and they were introduced into the model. The results of the accuracy of the simulation map of 2016 showed that LCM and GEOMOD had Kappa coefficients of 81% and 71%, respectively. Therefore, the LCM model was chosen as the most appropriate model and the map of the year 2029 was predicted and prepared.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • MLP Method
  • Markov Chain
  • Landsat
  • land use
  • prediction

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