Saeedeh Nateghi; Morteza Khodagholi; Mahshid Souri
Volume 31, Issue 3 , September 2024, , Pages 301-322
Abstract
Abstract Introduction Rangeland ecosystems are very important and sensitive to changes in environmental factors. Small changes in temperature and rainfall regime or other climatic events can fundamentally reduce the composition, distribution and dispersion of plant species as well as ...
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Abstract Introduction Rangeland ecosystems are very important and sensitive to changes in environmental factors. Small changes in temperature and rainfall regime or other climatic events can fundamentally reduce the composition, distribution and dispersion of plant species as well as their production. To better understand future climate change, it is essential to determine the current and future distribution of species. Species distribution modeling is currently the only tool that can be used to assess the number of changes in the distribution of multiple species in response to climate change. Therefore, considering the importance of climate in the distribution of plant species, this research examines the distribution of plant species in the future, taking into account the relationship between the important pasture species in Alborz province and the climate factor. Materials and methods In this research, four plant species including Stipa arabica, Ferula ovina, Bromus tomentellus and Artemisia aucheri were investigated in Alborz province. In order to determine the amount of precipitation and temperature, the data of the synoptic stations, which were analyzed by the Man-Kendall method, were used. Using the maps of the Ecological Zones Recognition Plan of the Forestry and Rangeland Research Institute and ArcGIS, the vegetation cover map of the province and the current distribution of species, the presence and absence of species were drawn and recorded. In order to prepare the environmental information layer, 19 bio-climates for the present were calculated and downloaded from the WorldClim.org site for 2050 with an accuracy of 30 seconds. These data were obtained for two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the future period. Then, the values of environmental variables were entered as independent variables and species presence and absence information as dependent variables in SPSS software, and the logistic regression statistical model was obtained from the presence of selected species. This statistical model was defined in the ArcGIS software environment and the potential species map was prepared. Kappa statistical coefficient was used to validate the resulting potential habitat maps model using 22 independent variables and with the help of error matrix. Results The results showed the rising temperature trends in all stations, and 65.76% of the trends were significant. In the northern and eastern heights of Alborz province, the increase in average temperature, especially in the early spring, late autumn and winter seasons, will cause early snow melting in the region, and due to the decrease in precipitation in the mountainous regions, it will cause many problems in water storage. According to the predictions of the logistic regression model, Stipa arabica species, 68626 hectares equivalent to 13% of the province, Bromus tomentellus, 298842 hectares equivalent to 58% of the province, Ferula ovina, 195465 hectares equivalent to 38% of the province, and Artemisia aucheri, 232539 hectares equivalent to 45% of the province have the probability of occurrence of class 75-100 The percentage is for the presence of these species. The evaluation of regression model using Kappa coefficient for Stipa arabica, Bromus tomentellus, Ferula ovina and Artemisia aucheri species was equal to 86, 85, 82 and 79 respectively, which are models with good accuracy according to Koch and Smith classification. 19 bio-climatic maps were prepared under two scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 for the year 2050. The current situation is similar to the 4.5 scenario, but in both models, we will see a decrease in the probability of the floor occurring by 75-100 percent in 2050. Also, the average of all temperature parameters in Karaj station will increase by 1.9 degrees Celsius by 2050 and the amount of precipitation will decrease by 1.33 mm. Discussion and conclusion The researchers reported that although there have been no significant changes in rainfall over the past 50 years, the decrease in rainfall in April and the increase in rainfall in December and July can indicate possible climate change in these areas in the future, and the climate in Iran, especially in spring is warming, which confirms the results of the present study. The minimum and maximum height in which the Stipa Arabica species is present is 1400 and 2400 meters, respectively, and the modeling results in 2050 show this minimum and maximum height in the 4.5 scenario, 2400-2100 meters and in the 8.5 scenario, respectively. It shows 2900 meters. The minimum and maximum altitude where the Ferula ovina species is present is 1850 and 2600 meters, respectively. If the modeling results in 2050 show this minimum and maximum height unchanged in the 4.5 scenario and 2800-3000 meters in the 8.5 scenario, respectively. The Bromus tomentellus species is currently located at an altitude of 1600-2700 m, while in scenario 4.5 (equilibrium conditions) and scenario 8.5 (pessimistic scenario) it is at an altitude above 2500 m, which indicates that this species of There is not much difference in altitude opinion. The minimum and maximum altitudes where Artemisia aucheri is present are 1600 and 2800 meters, respectively. Slope and temperature are the two main parameters affecting the distribution of this species and so that the slope affects the depth of the soil and thus has an effect on the establishment of the roots. Due to heat compensation in pessimistic conditions, this species has moved to higher altitudes, i.e. around 3000 meters, which confirms the results of other researchers. With the increase in temperature due to climate change, the extent of habitat of the species under investigation will decrease and they will move to areas that are higher and therefore have lower temperature.
Maryam Kavianpour; Seyedeh Khadije Mahdavi; Mohammadreza Shahraki; Yaser GHasemi Arian
Volume 31, Issue 2 , August 2024, , Pages 149-168
Abstract
Background and purpose:Due to the occurrence of climate changes in recent decades, traditional animal husbandry systems based on rangelands have faced serious challenges. In this regard, the use of adaptation strategies is necessary as a solution to reduce the vulnerability of rangeland users. The present ...
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Background and purpose:Due to the occurrence of climate changes in recent decades, traditional animal husbandry systems based on rangelands have faced serious challenges. In this regard, the use of adaptation strategies is necessary as a solution to reduce the vulnerability of rangeland users. The present research has investigated the adaptation strategies of Turkmen pastoralists in the face of climate change in the Qaradong region of Golestan province. Materials and methods:This research is descriptive and has been carried out using a survey method. The research statistical population consists of 249 beneficiaries from 7 local communities in the Qaradong region of Golestan province, of which 148 people were selected as the sample size based on the Krejcie and Morgan table using a stratified random sampling method. The measuring tool of the research was a researcher-made questionnaire. The content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by using the opinions of rangeland experts, and its reliability was confirmed by calculating the Cronbach's alpha coefficient. Results:The results showed that the degree of pastoralists' adaptation in the face of climate change is moderate to high. The findings indicate that there are significant differences in the use of climate change adaptation strategies among the pastoralists. Thus, combined-developmental, saving, correct consumption, and emergency strategies were identified as the most used strategies. Also, the results showed that there is a positive and significant relationship between adaptation of pastoralists in dealing with climate change with the history of livestock pastoralism and the amount of income derived from it at the 99% confidence level and also with the variables of age, the number of household members, and the amount of income from non-livestock occupations at the 95% confidence level. Conclusion: The livelihoods of the pastoralists are heavily dependent on the rangelands, and many of them have only one economic source. This causes the continuation of the climate change process to increase their vulnerability. Therefore, adopting new activities in the form of diversifying income sources and creating alternative livelihood opportunities, as well as multi-purpose use of rangelands, will bring more adaptability of pastoralists to climate changes.
Mohammadreza Shahraki; Mohsen Sharafatmandrad; Yaser GHasemi Arian
Volume 30, Issue 4 , February 2024, , Pages 571-589
Abstract
Background and purposeFailure to meet needs, climate change and resulting social and economic conflicts have faced many challenges in the life of nomadic communities. So that they are forced to leave animal husbandry temporarily or permanently. In this regard, the present research has identified and ...
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Background and purposeFailure to meet needs, climate change and resulting social and economic conflicts have faced many challenges in the life of nomadic communities. So that they are forced to leave animal husbandry temporarily or permanently. In this regard, the present research has identified and analyzed the reasons for the abandonment of livestock by nomadic in the summery rangeland of northeastern Iran.Materials and methodsThe current research purpose is applied and descriptive information was collected by survey method and using a mixed approach. The statistical population is consists of 175 Kurdish nomadic households of Kurmanj, North Khorasan, from four traditional communities in the rangelands of Ajisu area in Marve-tape city, Golestan province. According to Yamane's (1967) formula, 122 beneficiaries were selected as a sample using a stratified random method with proportional assignment within the studied customary systems. The measurement tool was a researcher-made questionnaire, the items and components of which were finalized based on 15 interviews with experts who were identified based on the snowball technique. So that the questionnaire was prepared based on 46 items in the form of 11 components. Each of the items through a five-point Likert scale including very little (with a numerical value of 1), little (with a numerical value of 2), to some extent (with a numerical value of 3), a lot (with a numerical value of 4) and A lot (with a numerical value of 5) were measured. The content and face validity of the questionnaire was confirmed through experts' opinions and based on the convergent validity criterion (AVE), which has a minimum value of 0.5. To determine the reliability of the measurement tool, two criteria, Cronbach's alpha coefficient and composite reliability (CR) were calculated, for which a value greater than 0.7 is acceptable. After collecting data, statistical calculations in this research were done based on SPSS25 and Smart PLS3 software in two descriptive and inferential sections.ResultsThe results obtained from the average rank comparison showed that the five components of "livestock and rangeland management challenges", "climate changes and the resulting threats", "incompatibility of the market with the new needs of grazing", "lack of economic The presence of animal husbandry and the reduction of saving power" and "life experiences outside of animal husbandry and changes in local customs" respectively, with the highest mean values of 10.09, 9.87, 8.27, 8.14 and 7.93 are the highest. It has had a degree of importance and influence in the abandonment of livestock by nomadic in the studied area. The results obtained from the relationships between the components of the model of the reasons for the abandonment of livestock by nomadic showed that all the relationships were positive and significant at the 95% confidence level. So that the strongest relationships are assigned to "life experience outside ranching → conflict" and "reduction in family ability → life experience outside ranching" with path coefficients of 0.687 and 0.547. The weakest of them also belong to the two relations "weakness of government services → reduction of savings" and "weakness of government services → market mismatch". As the results showed, climate change and its consequences on the two factors of production reduction and poor access to financial resources (ρ=0.010, β=0.363 and t=2.585) and the weakness of government services and lack of Infrastructures (ρ=0.000, β=0.301 and t=4.364) had a positive and significant effect at the 99% confidence level.ConclusionAccording to the obtained results, the development of livelihood support of the government, including educational facilities and health and medical infrastructures, providing facilities and cheap bank loans for the development of businesses with the aim of reducing the dependence of users on rangeland, development of veterinary services free in the affairs of the nomads of the province, increasing government subsidies in the distribution of supplementary animal feed, flour and fuel, laying the groundwork for providing drinking water for animals and families, creating job opportunities through the holding of professional and skill training courses Businesses such as handicrafts and the production of targeted dairy products, the creation of livestock markets and the sale of live livestock are suggested in order to prevent nomadic communities from abandoning traditional animal husbandry
morteza Khodagholi; Razieh Saboohi; Mina Bayat; Parvaneh Ashouri; Javad Motamedi (Torkan)
Volume 29, Issue 4 , January 2023, , Pages 530-541
Abstract
Understanding the environmental factors affecting the establishment of vegetation, can help in the proper management of rangeland ecosystems. Optimal habitat has a beneficial effect on the survival and reproduction of species. With the advancement of statistical science and GIS, it has become possible ...
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Understanding the environmental factors affecting the establishment of vegetation, can help in the proper management of rangeland ecosystems. Optimal habitat has a beneficial effect on the survival and reproduction of species. With the advancement of statistical science and GIS, it has become possible to predict the habitat of plant species using modeling methods. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of preparing a forecast map of B. tomentellus habitats based on the climate forecast model in South Zagros (Fars province). First, using 29 synoptic stations inside and adjacent areas, a database including variables of precipitation, night temperature, daily temperature and average temperature was formed and 19 climatic measures were calculated. Also, using a digital height model with an accuracy of 30 meters, three physiographic variables including slope, direction and height were prepared. Then, using updated maps of ecological zones and field visits, the presence and absence points of B. tomentellus were identified. Using logistic regression, the growth behavior of this species in the South Zagros region was determined and the model map and the corresponding equations were calculated in the current conditions. Using current equations and placement of data extracted from the Worldclime database, the future distribution map of B. tomentellus for 2050 was generated under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The results showed that B. tomentellus species will migrate to higher altitudes of 170 and 260 m, respectively, in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Also, the area of suitable habitat areas, from 26.8% of the area of South Zagros rangeland habitats in the current conditions, to 8.5% under the RCP4.5 scenario and 1.7% under the pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5) in 2050 Will be reduced.
zahra jamali; Majid Ownegh; Abdol Rasool mahini
Volume 29, Issue 3 , October 2022, , Pages 191-200
Hamidreza Mirdavoudi; Ehsan Zandi Esfahan; Gholamreza Goudarzi; Ali Famaheini
Volume 28, Issue 2 , June 2021, , Pages 328-340
Abstract
In this study, the initial assessment of carbon storage in plant communities of Lycium depressum Stocks and Zygophylum fabago L. was done in the Meyghan playa, Arak. Plant sampling was done by the random-systematic method. To determine the aboveground and underground biomass, ...
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In this study, the initial assessment of carbon storage in plant communities of Lycium depressum Stocks and Zygophylum fabago L. was done in the Meyghan playa, Arak. Plant sampling was done by the random-systematic method. To determine the aboveground and underground biomass, a clipping method was used, and these organs were weighed separately. The organic carbon of plant samples was determined by the ash method. Soil studies were performed in each plant type, in the depth of plant rooting, as well as in areas without plants. The data were analyzed by SPSS24 software. The results showed that the soil and plant average carbon sequestration of Z. fabago habitat was 14.61 and 0.18, and in L. depressum type was 13.8 and 0.425 ton/ha. This difference was not significant at the 5% level. Soil carbon sequestration increased significantly in areas covered with studied species (t = - 6.902, p < /em> = 0.001), compared to the areas without any vegetation cover. The carbon conversion coefficient of above and underground organs of the studied plants was significant at the level of 5% and the carbon sequestration of aboveground parts of the plant to underground carbon sequestrated ratio in Z. fabago and L. depressum was 2.43 and 2.08, respectively. Considering the carbon storage capacity of plants studied (in the soil and plant), it can be concluded that these plants can play an important role in carbon sequestration at the least possible cost, and mitigation of climate change consequences in arid regions.
Mohammadreza Shahraki; Ahmad Abedi Sarvestani; Abdolrahim Lotfi
Volume 28, Issue 1 , April 2021, , Pages 138-150
Abstract
Adverse climate change, drought, and floods have a negative impact on natural resources, crops, and livestock production as the main sources of livelihood for the villagers. Therefore, it is important to study the perception of rural communities about the occurrence of climate change and its relationship ...
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Adverse climate change, drought, and floods have a negative impact on natural resources, crops, and livestock production as the main sources of livelihood for the villagers. Therefore, it is important to study the perception of rural communities about the occurrence of climate change and its relationship with a sustainable livelihood. The present study was conducted for this purpose by descriptive-survey research method. In this study, 297 residents Age 35 years and older in 10 villages of the Oghan watershed in Golestan province were surveyed. The data collection tool of the questionnaire was developed by the researcher; its content validity was confirmed using the opinions of university academics and natural resources experts. The results showed that age, number of livestock, history of animal husbandry, length of stay in the village, and income of individuals with their perception of the symptoms of climate change have a positive and significant relationship. Findings of structural equation model evaluation showed a causal relationship between the perception of the occurrence of climate change symptoms and individuals' livelihood changes so that with increasing awareness of villagers about the occurrence of climate change symptoms, their livelihood is facing more changes.
Parvin Mohammadi; Mahdi Ghorbani; Arash Malekian; Ali Akbar Nazari Semani
Volume 27, Issue 2 , June 2020, , Pages 287-299
Abstract
Nowadays, the adverse effects of climate change and its damaging effects have become an environmental, social and economic problem. Assessing the vulnerability of local communities to climate change as an important step in identifying effective mechanisms and prioritizing management will be enhancing ...
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Nowadays, the adverse effects of climate change and its damaging effects have become an environmental, social and economic problem. Assessing the vulnerability of local communities to climate change as an important step in identifying effective mechanisms and prioritizing management will be enhancing flexibility and increasing adaptability. This research is field-survey research, performed by using field observation and completing a vulnerability questionnaire to climate change in three villages of Aghabarar, Seyyed Ayaz, and Seyyed Ahmad in Qasrshirin city. The study was based on the vulnerability indexes such as exposure, sensitivity, and adaptation capacity. Questionnaires were completed among the target groups, which were finally analyzed using statistical tests such as the analysis of variance, Fisher, and Levin. The results showed that the components of exposure, sensitivity, and economy in Qasr Shirin city were vulnerable. Also, there was no significant difference between the three villages in a dry climate, and the vulnerability of Aghabarar village was 3.43, Seyyed Ahmad village was 3.30, and Seyyed Ayaz village with a value of 3.13 was higher than the average value of vulnerability. Also, Seyyed Ahmad village had the highest level of environmental vulnerability in the face of climate change with a value of 4.1. The vulnerability of exposure components and sensitivity is due to climatic events, geographical location, and dependence of local communities on natural resources and climate. Also, the high vulnerability of the economic component is due to the poverty and lack of physical capital of the communities. The vulnerability of the three components of exposure, susceptibility, and economics has caused the vulnerability of the communities studied. These factors affect the compatibility of local communities and countries, their willingness, or ability to adapt. The government with local involvement can effectively respond to the negative effects of climate change as well.
mahsa ghazimoradi; Attaollah ebrahimi
Volume 27, Issue 2 , June 2020, , Pages 321-333
Abstract
Assessing the potential habitat and studying the geographical distribution of species is a key issue in many ecological studies, environmental protection, wildlife, and assessing the trend of changes at various scales. Therefore, in the present study, modeling of potential habitat of Ferula ovina in ...
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Assessing the potential habitat and studying the geographical distribution of species is a key issue in many ecological studies, environmental protection, wildlife, and assessing the trend of changes at various scales. Therefore, in the present study, modeling of potential habitat of Ferula ovina in the present and future years was performed using a generalized incremental model in Fereydunshahr region. The results showed that in 2030 and 2080, in exchange for all climatic factors remaining constant, except the average annual temperature, the probability of surviving the Ferula species has increased; in other words, the probability of its occurrence increases. The habitat area in the class where the species is most likely to be present is currently about 12,970 hectares in Fereydunshahr, Isfahan, which in 2030 and 2080 will be reached about 27157.3 and 31036.9 hectares, respectively. This indicates that the increase in the average annual temperature in 2030 and 2080 compared to now will have a positive effect on the presence of the species in the habitats studied. Because according to the results obtained in response curves, by increasing annual temperature, the probability of the presence of Ferula species increases. The results of this research can be used to improve and rehabilitate the vegetation of areas with similar conditions, which is one of the important achievements of this research.
Hajar Ranjbar; Masoud Bazgir; Davod Namdar Khojasteh; Mahmoud Rostaminia
Volume 26, Issue 3 , September 2019, , Pages 675-688
Abstract
Dust storm phenomenon is one of the most damaging natural disasters in arid and semi-arid regions of the world especially in Iran caused problem on human health and environment. The main reason of dust storm event can be climate change, destruction of natural ecosystems, ...
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Dust storm phenomenon is one of the most damaging natural disasters in arid and semi-arid regions of the world especially in Iran caused problem on human health and environment. The main reason of dust storm event can be climate change, destruction of natural ecosystems, deforestation, and destruction of rangelands in Iran and neighbor countries like Iraq. Ilam province due to adjacent to vast deserts such as the Iraq Sahara is exposed to severe dust storm continuously. The aim of this study was to identify the critical points of dust sources in Ilam province. At first step, long-term climate data (8 synoptic weather stations), vegetation cover, and physiography of study area were collected. In the second step, soil sampling was carried out at 0-30 cm soil depths in some places in Ilam province and then these soil samples were transferred to the soil laboratory for chemical and physical analyses. In the third step, by using USEPA model, soil and the maps of climatic parameters were prepared and finally critical and high critical dust source points were mapped through integration of different maps in Ilam province. The results showed that the Bahram Abad area in the central Mehran and Abu-Ghoraib and Abu-Ghovayr areas in Musian part, Dehloran city were selected as high critical sources of dust storm in Ilam province due to the highest corresponding with dust storm identification criteria. This project could be useful for prevention and control of dust storm via identification and dust storm maps.
Mohammad Khosroshahi; Majid Hassani; Seyed Aziz Karami
Volume 10, Issue 1 , August 2019, , Pages 40-56
Razieh Sabohi; Hosein Barani; Morteza Khodagholi; Ahmad Abedi Sarvestani; Asghar Tahmasebi
Volume 25, Issue 2 , August 2018, , Pages 438-453
Abstract
Undoubtedly, one of the most important and impressionable societies to climate changes are nomadic societies and indigenous knowledge has pervasive roles in range and livestock management. For this purpose, perception and knowledge of the pastoral nomads to climate change were determined ...
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Undoubtedly, one of the most important and impressionable societies to climate changes are nomadic societies and indigenous knowledge has pervasive roles in range and livestock management. For this purpose, perception and knowledge of the pastoral nomads to climate change were determined in summer rangelands of Semirom. The study population included the nomads of summer rangelands in Semirom. A total of 7700 nomads from different tribes of Qashqaei including Dareshoori, Amale, Shesh bolooki, and Farsimadan use summer rangeland of Semirom. To evaluate the indigenous knowledge and adaptation of nomads to climate changes, several methods were used such as depth and group interviews and questionnaires. The effects of age, sex, education, and range elevation were analyzed using Mann-Whitney test. The nomads believe that changes in temperature, precipitation, and wind are the main signs of climate change, as over 90 percent of nomads believe to precipitation decrease, increasing temperature, and wind speed. The most of the questions are influenced by age, sex, education, and range elevation. The questionnaires refer to adaptations such as delay time of migration, construction of block houses and pools, reducing livestock, feeding livestock with other forage resources etc. Our results showed that nomads of Qashqaei tribes acquired a perception about climate change during living in the nature.
Mostafa Jafari
Volume 21, Issue 1 , June 2014, , Pages 139-153
Abstract
Iran faced with climate and environmental changes in past years and it is projected that some climatic changes will occur in the future. Net Primary Production (NPP) is an important index to evaluate production in natural ecosystems including forest, rangeland and desert. Climate change impact will cause ...
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Iran faced with climate and environmental changes in past years and it is projected that some climatic changes will occur in the future. Net Primary Production (NPP) is an important index to evaluate production in natural ecosystems including forest, rangeland and desert. Climate change impact will cause changes in biomass production in natural ecosystems. In this research, the vulnerability of NPP in Iranian forest, rangeland and desert ecosystem has been considered. Results of this consideration presented here in six selected climatic zones in Gilan, Mazandaran, East Azerbyjan, Kermanshah, Khorasan and Systan and Baluchestan provinces. According to the result outcomes, total NPP of forest, rangeland and desert ecosystem in Gilan, East Azerbyjan, and Khorasan provinces, under temperature and precipitation changes, has been increased in the year ended 2039. While, the amount of NPP in Mazandaran, Kermanshah, and Systan and Baluchestan provinces would have been decreased. These changes in Khorasan provinces (including North, South and Razavi) will show highest increase, indicating suitable increase of precipitation and temperature in the region. Quantitative changes in NPP depend on total biomass and changes of precipitation and temperature. As an example, these changes in forest ecosystems of Gilan, and Khorasan provinces, will increase and in Mazandaran, and Kermanshah provinces, will decrease. Also, these changes in range ecosystems of East Azerbyjan, and Khorasan provinces, will increase and in Kermanshah, and Systan and Baluchestan provinces, will decrease. While, changes in desert ecosystems of Khorasan provinces mainly will increase and in Systan and Baluchestan provinces, will decrease.