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Modeling of potential habitats of species ferula ovina for current and next years using generalized additive model(GAM) Fereidunshahr regional , in Isfahan province

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student of Range Management, Faculty of Natural Resource and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Natural Resource and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Iran

Abstract

Assessing the potential habitat and studying the geographical distribution of species is a key issue in many ecological studies, environmental protection, wildlife, and assessing the trend of changes at various scales. Therefore, in the present study, modeling of potential habitat of Ferula ovina in the present and future years was performed using a generalized incremental model in Fereydunshahr region. The results showed that in 2030 and 2080, in exchange for all climatic factors remaining constant, except the average annual temperature, the probability of surviving the Ferula species has increased; in other words, the probability of its occurrence increases. The habitat area in the class where the species is most likely to be present is currently about 12,970 hectares in Fereydunshahr, Isfahan, which in 2030 and 2080 will be reached about 27157.3 and 31036.9 hectares, respectively. This indicates that the increase in the average annual temperature in 2030 and 2080 compared to now will have a positive effect on the presence of the species in the habitats studied. Because according to the results obtained in response curves, by increasing annual temperature, the probability of the presence of Ferula species increases. The results of this research can be used to improve and rehabilitate the vegetation of areas with similar conditions, which is one of the important achievements of this research.

Keywords

References
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Iranian Journal of Range and Desert Research
Volume 27, Issue 2
June 2020
Pages 321-333
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