Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Somayyeh Souri ¹
• Shahryar Dashti ²
• Yousef Ajani ³
• Esmaeil Karimi ⁴
• Elham Noori ⁵

¹ Ph.D Student, Department of Plant production and Genetics. Faculty of Agriculture, University of Maragheh, East Azarbaijan, Iran

² Assistant Professor, Department of Plant Production Engineering and Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Maragheh

³ 3- Assistant Prof., Botany Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran

⁴ Assistant Professor, Department of Plant Production and Genetics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Maragheh, East Azarbaijan

⁵ Researcher, Forests, Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Abstract
Background and Objectives
Environmental factors can significantly influence the distribution of plant species. Predicting suitable habitats for species requires a thorough understanding of these influences. Thymus is one of the most important genera in the Lamiaceae family, comprising over 215 species widely distributed across the world, particularly in the Mediterranean region. The present study aims to predict the habitat suitability of Thymus kotschyanus using logistic regression modeling and spatial interpolation methods in the Dolaniyeh region of Piranshahr County.
Materials and Methods
Topographic variables including elevation, slope, and aspect were derived from the region’s Digital Elevation Model (DEM), while climatic parameters such as average temperature and precipitation were obtained from the Dolanaya synoptic station. A total of 94 presence and absence points of Thymus kotschyanus were systematically and randomly sampled. Binary logistic regression was used in SPSS software to evaluate the relationship between species presence and environmental factors. Spatial variation in habitat suitability was assessed using deterministic and geostatistical interpolation techniques.
Results
The results indicated that the probability of T. kotschyanus presence had a negative relationship with variables such as latitude, slope aspect, leaf width, soil organic carbon, calcium carbonate, copper, and mean monthly and annual precipitation, as well as sand and clay content. In contrast, variables such as slope, leaf length, plant height, electrical conductivity, pH, zinc, iron, and average temperature showed a positive relationship with the probability of species presence. The likelihood of Thymus presence increases in arid and semi-arid areas with suitable slopes. Spatial distribution mapping revealed that the eastern part of the study area had the highest probability of presence, which gradually decreased toward the southwest. In most parts of the region, the probability of presence was below 0.25, while in a few localized areas, it approached 1.00.
Conclusion
Based on the results of the regression models, which showed significant effects of environmental variables such as elevation, slope, aspect, and precipitation on the distribution of T. kotschyanus in the study area, these models can serve as effective tools for identifying potential habitats and mapping the species’ geographic range. Considering the increased presence in the eastern region and a notable decline in the southwest, the findings of this study provide a scientific foundation for grazing management strategies and cultivation planning of T. kotschyanus tailored to the ecological capacity of different zones, contributing to the sustainable utilization and conservation of this valuable medicinal species.
 
Abstract
Background and Objectives
Environmental factors can significantly influence the distribution of plant species. Predicting suitable habitats for species requires a thorough understanding of these influences. Thymus is one of the most important genera in the Lamiaceae family, comprising over 215 species widely distributed across the world, particularly in the Mediterranean region. The present study aims to predict the habitat suitability of Thymus kotschyanus using logistic regression modeling and spatial interpolation methods in the Dolaniyeh region of Piranshahr County.
Materials and Methods
Topographic variables including elevation, slope, and aspect were derived from the region’s Digital Elevation Model (DEM), while climatic parameters such as average temperature and precipitation were obtained from the Dolanaya synoptic station. A total of 94 presence and absence points of Thymus kotschyanus were systematically and randomly sampled. Binary logistic regression was used in SPSS software to evaluate the relationship between species presence and environmental factors. Spatial variation in habitat suitability was assessed using deterministic and geostatistical interpolation techniques.
Results
The results indicated that the probability of T. kotschyanus presence had a negative relationship with variables such as latitude, slope aspect, leaf width, soil organic carbon, calcium carbonate, copper, and mean monthly and annual precipitation, as well as sand and clay content. In contrast, variables such as slope, leaf length, plant height, electrical conductivity, pH, zinc, iron, and average temperature showed a positive relationship with the probability of species presence. The likelihood of Thymus presence increases in arid and semi-arid areas with suitable slopes. Spatial distribution mapping revealed that the eastern part of the study area had the highest probability of presence, which gradually decreased toward the southwest. In most parts of the region, the probability of presence was below 0.25, while in a few localized areas, it approached 1.00.
Conclusion
Based on the results of the regression models, which showed significant effects of environmental variables such as elevation, slope, aspect, and precipitation on the distribution of T. kotschyanus in the study area, these models can serve as effective tools for identifying potential habitats and mapping the species’ geographic range. Considering the increased presence in the eastern region and a notable decline in the southwest, the findings of this study provide a scientific foundation for grazing management strategies and cultivation planning of T. kotschyanus tailored to the ecological capacity of different zones, contributing to the sustainable utilization and conservation of this valuable medicinal species.
 

Keywords

• Ecology
• Habitat Modeling
• Rangeland Management
• Regression Models
• Sustainable Ecosystems