همکاری با انجمن علمی مدیریت و کنترل مناطق بیابانی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری بیابان زدایی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

2 استاد گروه آبخیزداری و مدیریت مناطق بیابانی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

3 استاد، گروه محیط زیست، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان.

چکیده

رویکرد مدیریتی بیلان صفر تخریب اراضی (ZNLD) به‌عنوان یک رویکرد نوین برای اولین بار در سال 2012 با هدف صفرسازی تخریب اراضی در افق 2030 مطرح شد. هدف از انجام این پژوهش، بررسی روند بیابان‌زایی با استفاده از مدل ESAs، اجرای رویکرد ZNLD و ارائه یک برنامه مدیریتی است. در این پژوهش پس از تهیه نقشه کاربری اراضی مربوط به سال‌های 2000، 2010 و 2018 و پیش‌بینی آن در سال 2030 با استفاده از زنجیره مارکوف و شبیه‌سازی پارامتر دما و بارش با استفاده از مدل ریزمقیاس‌نمایی SDSM تحت سناریوی RCP4.5، نقشه خطر در افق زمانی 2030 شبیه‌سازی شد. در گام بعدی، برای دستیابی به ZNLD در افق 2030، برنامه مدیریتی برای به صفر رساندن بیابان‌زایی و تهیه نقشه ZNLD پیشنهاد گردید. نتایج مورد مطالعه نشان داد شدت بیابان‌زایی در افق زمانی 2030 رو به افزایش است. بیشترین افزایش خطر مربوط به کلاس F3 به میزان 7/2 درصد و بیشترین کاهش مربوط به کلاس P به میزان 7/4 درصد می‌باشد. کلاس‌های خطر I و II به‌ترتیب به میزان 3 و 2/3 درصد در افق زمانی 2030 کاهش خواهد یافت. این در حالی است که کلاس‌های خطر III و IV روند افزایشی خواهند داشت. برای دستیابی به سطح ZNLD به‌ترتیب با احیاء مساحتی برابر 3/2 و 6/12 درصد از وسعت اراضی با کلاس خطر F1 و P و با حفظ شرایط موجود (2/0 درصد از مناطق N) در مجموع مساحتی برابر 1/15 درصد به مناطق غیربیابانی افزوده خواهد شد و سطح ZNLD در افق 2030 به 4/23 درصد خواهد رسید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of Hazard and Risk and Road Map to Zet-Nero in Gorgan plain for 2030

نویسندگان [English]

  • zahra jamali 1
  • Majid Ownegh 2
  • Abdol Rasool mahini 3

1 PhD student of combat desertification, Gorgan University of Agricultural Science and natural Resources

2 Department of Watershed and desert Resorts Management Professor

3 Department of Environmental Science Professor, Gorgan University of Agricultural Science and natural Resources

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • RCP
  • land use change
  • climate change
  • Risk
  • Gorgan plain
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