شناسایی متغیرهای مؤثر بر تاب‌آوری کشاورزان در برابر گردوغبار بر مبنای نظر خبرگان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری بیابان‌زدایی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشیار، گروه احیای مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

چکیده

اهمیت توجه به توسعه پایدار و امنیت زیستی در مناطق تحت‌تأثیر فاجعه‌های زیست‌محیطی هم‌چون طوفان‌های گردوغبار، نیاز به روش‌های نوین برای یافتن راهبردهای مقابله را بیشتر کرده است. بدین منظور تحلیل ساختاری متقاطع، ابزاری کارآمد برای مطالعه رفتار سیستم است. با استناد به نتایج حاصل از تحلیل ساختاری و رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی می‌توان راهبردهایی جهت حفظ پایداری در مناطق تحت تأثیر ریسک زیاد گردوغبار ارائه داد. روش این پژوهش باتوجه به هدف آن، از نوع کاربردی و براساس رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی می‌باشد. جامعه نمونه پژوهش از 22 نفر از کارشناسان و مدیران مطلع در حوزه امور کشاورزی و گردوغبار تشکیل شده است. براساس اطلاعات جمع‌آوری شده از مرحله مصاحبه به روش نیمه ساختار‌یافته، عوامل مؤثر شناسایی شد. براساس نظر کارشناسان و خبرگان عوامل نهایی استخراج و یک ماتریس 26×26 طراحی شد. سپس ماتریس اثر متقابل تهیه شده، توسط خبرگان امتیازدهی شد. به منظور تعیین عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر تاب‌آوری جوامع کشاورز تحت تأثیر گردوغبار در شهرستان اهواز، رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی با استفاده از نرم‌افزار MICMAC در قالب سه گروه مؤلفه اقتصادی، اجتماعی و طبیعی-فیزیکی براساس 26 شاخص انجام شد. متغیرهای پژوهش در سه طبقه دو‌وجهی، تنظیمی و مستقل براساس میزان رابطه تأثیرپذیری و تأثیرگذاری‌شان تقسیم‌بندی شدند. عوامل کلیدی شامل «تغییر کمیت و کیفیت محصولات کشاورزی، کاهش درآمد و آسیب به سرمایه کشاورزان، تشدید فقر و بیکاری، دسترسی به اعتبارات مالی، معیشت جایگزین و مهاجرت» می‌باشند. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش نشان داد که سیستم مورد مطالعه از نوع ناپایدار بوده و به‌منظور اتخاذ تصمیم‌های مدیریتی و افزایش پایداری نیاز به توسعه راهبردهایی بر مبنای عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر تاب‌آوری کشاورزان می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Identification of variables affecting farmer’s resilience to dust based on expert opinion

نویسندگان [English]

  • MAHSA abdolshahnejad 1
  • Hassan Khosravi 2
  • Aliakbar Nazari Samani 2
  • Amir Alambeigi 3
1 PhD Student of Combating Desertification, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tehran University, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Rehabilitation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tehran University, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension & Education, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, Tehran University, Iran
چکیده [English]

The importance of paying attention to sustainable development and biosafety in areas that effected by an environmental disaster such as dust storms has increased the need for new methods to find coping strategies. For this purpose, cross-structural analysis is an effective tool for studying system behavior. Based on the results of structural analysis and future study approaches, stability strategies can be proposed in the affected area by high-risk dust. The method of the research is according to the applied and future study approach. The sample population of this research was composed of 22 experts and managers in the field of agriculture and dust. Based on collecting data through expert interview and brainstorming method, the effective drivers were identified. According to the opinion of experts, the final drivers were extracted as a 26 × 26 matrix. Then, the cross-impact matrix was scored by experts. To determine the key drivers affecting the resilience of farming communities affected by dust in Ahvaz County, the future research approach was performed using MICMAC software in three groups of economic, social, and natural-physical components and 26 indicators. Research variables were divided into three categories »key, Independent and Regulative« based on the degree of relationship between influence and dependence. Key drivers include »Change of Quality and Quantity of Agricultural Products, Income Risk, Unemployment and Poverty Rise, Access to Financial Credits, Alternative livelihood and Immigration«. The results showed that the system of this study is unstable and in order to make management decisions and increase sustainability, it is necessary to develop strategies based on key drivers affecting farmer’s resilience.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Future study
  • Structure analysis
  • Dust
  • Resilience
  • MICMAC
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