همکاری با انجمن علمی مدیریت و کنترل مناطق بیابانی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار پژوهشی، بخش تحقیقات مرتع، موسسه تحقیقات جنگل ها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران،

2 دکترای علوم مرتع، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان اصفهان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، اصفهان، ایران

3 کارشناس پژوهش، بخش تحقیقات مرتع، موسسه تحقیقات جنگل‌ها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

4 استادیار پژوهشی، بخش تحقیقات مرتع، موسسه تحقیقات جنگل ها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران

5 l دانشیار پژوهشی، بخش تحقیقات مرتع، مؤسسه تحقیقات جنگل‌ها و مراتع کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران

10.22092/ijrdr.2022.128073

چکیده

شناخت عوامل محیطی موثر در استقرار پوشش گیاهی، می‌تواند به مدیریت صحیح اکوسیستم‌‌های مرتعی کمک کند. رویشگاه مطلوب، تأثیرتأثیر به‌سزایی بر بقا و تولید مثل گونه‌ها دارد. با پیشرفت علم آمار و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، پیش‌بینی رویشگاه‌ گونه‌های گیاهی با استفاده از روش‌های مدل‌سازی، میسر شده است. از اینرو، پژوهش حاضر با هدف تهیه نقشه پیش‌بینی رویشگاه‌‌های گونه B. tomentellus بر پایه مدل پیش‌بینی اقلیمی، در زاگرس جنوبی (استان فارس) انجام شد. ابتدا با استفاده از 29 ایستگاه سینوپتیک داخل و مناطق مجاور، پایگاه داده‌ها شامل متغیرهای بارش، دمای شبانه، دمای روزانه و متوسط دما، تشکیل و 19 سنجه اقلیمی محاسبه شد. همچنین با استفاده از مدل رقومی ارتفاع با دقت 30 متر، سه متغیر فیزیوگرافی شامل شیب، جهت و ارتفاع، تهیه شد. سپس با استفاده از نقشه‌‌‌های بهنگام شده طرح شناخت مناطق اکولوژیک و بازدیدهای میدانی، نقاط حضور و غیاب گونه B. tomentellus مشخص شد. با استفاده از رگرسیون لجستیک، رفتار رویش این گونه در منطقه زاگرس جنوبی، مشخص و نقشه مدل‌سازی شده و معادلات مربوطه در شرایط کنونی، محاسبه شد. با استفاده از معادلات فعلی و قرار دادن داده‌های استخراج شده از پایگاهWorldclime ، نقشه پراکنش آینده گونه B. tomentellus، برای سال 2050 تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5، تولید گردید. نتایج نشان داد که گونه B. tomentellus تحت سناریوهای RCP4.5 و RCP8.5، به‌‌ترتیب معادل 170 و 260 متر به ارتفاعات بالاتر، مهاجرت خواهد کرد. همچنین مساحت مناطق مناسب رویشگاه گونه، از 8/26 درصد مساحت رویشگاه‌‌های مرتعی زاگرس جنوبی در شرایط کنونی، به 5/8 درصد تحت شرایط سناریو RCP4.5 و 7/1 درصد تحت سناریو بدبینانه (RCP8.5)، در سال 2050 کاهش خواهد یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Effect of Climate Change on Habitat of Bromus tomentellus Boiss in South Zagros Based on Climate Prediction Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • morteza Khodagholi 1
  • Razieh Saboohi 2
  • Mina Bayat 3
  • Parvaneh Ashouri 4
  • Javad Motamedi (Torkan) 5

1 Associate Proffessor, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, AREEO, Tehran, Iran

2 Ph.D. of Range Management, Isfahan Agriculture and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Isfahan, Iran

3 Research expert, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran,

4 Assistant Professor, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran

5 Associate Professor, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran

چکیده [English]

Understanding the environmental factors affecting the establishment of vegetation, can help in the proper management of rangeland ecosystems. Optimal habitat has a beneficial effect on the survival and reproduction of species. With the advancement of statistical science and GIS, it has become possible to predict the habitat of plant species using modeling methods. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of preparing a forecast map of B. tomentellus habitats based on the climate forecast model in South Zagros (Fars province). First, using 29 synoptic stations inside and adjacent areas, a database including variables of precipitation, night temperature, daily temperature and average temperature was formed and 19 climatic measures were calculated. Also, using a digital height model with an accuracy of 30 meters, three physiographic variables including slope, direction and height were prepared. Then, using updated maps of ecological zones and field visits, the presence and absence points of B. tomentellus were identified. Using logistic regression, the growth behavior of this species in the South Zagros region was determined and the model map and the corresponding equations were calculated in the current conditions. Using current equations and placement of data extracted from the Worldclime database, the future distribution map of B. tomentellus for 2050 was generated under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The results showed that B. tomentellus species will migrate to higher altitudes of 170 and 260 m, respectively, in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Also, the area of ​suitable habitat areas, from 26.8% of the area of ​South Zagros rangeland habitats in the current conditions, to 8.5% under the RCP4.5 scenario and 1.7% under the pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5) in 2050 Will be reduced.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Logistic regression
  • Climate scenario
  • Species distribution model

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